ISSN 2394-5125
 

Research Article 


STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam.

Abstract
Climatic changeability as well as greenhouse gases emission by human brings about an
expansion in average worldwide temperature that prompts more rate of evaporation. Temperature is one of
the most significant meteorological variables since it tends to be identified with sunlight based radiation &
accordingly with both transpiration & evaporation forms which establish a significant period of the
hydrologic cycle. IPCC (2007) announced the expanding propensities in temperature in numerous zones of
the world in time & space. Outrageous climate occasions are probably going to cause harm to environment &
society. Expanding force as well as recurrence of such occasions are of extraordinary concern & have been
validated by different examinations on future environmental variation all through the world. Different RCPs
(representative concentration pathways) length the scope of conceivable radiative forcing situations and used
by Climate modelling community for concentrations of aerosol & greenhouse gas together with changes in
land use, that are steady with a lot of wide atmosphere results. GCM’s (General circulation models) helps to
predict future meteorological parameters under different future climatic scenario condition. As GCM’s have
coarser spatial resolution, they can’t be used for local impact studies. As a result, downscaling is used to
obtain local-scale surface weather from regional-scale atmospheric predictor variables. Statistical
Downscaling technique is utilized for downscaling daily temperature data to obtain future climate data for
Dehradun district in Uttarakhand. The large scale NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
“reanalysis” data of the interval 1961-1995 is utilized for calibration and the data of the interval 1996-2005 is
utilized for the model’s validation. The estimation of future monthly based temperature for the period 2020’s,
2050’s & 2080’s for Dehradun district is carried out for different RCPs (2.6, 4.5 & 8.5). Both Average
Annual maximum and minimum temperature shows an increasing trend for 2020’s, 2050’s & 2080’s for all
the three scenarios.

Key words: Climate change, NCEP Predictors, Future Scenarios, SDSM, Temperature, RCP, Dehradun district.


 
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Pubmed Style

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam. STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND. JCR. 2019; 6(5): 434-444. doi:10.31838/jcr.06.05.72


Web Style

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam. STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND. http://www.jcreview.com/?mno=65556 [Access: May 31, 2021]. doi:10.31838/jcr.06.05.72


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam. STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND. JCR. 2019; 6(5): 434-444. doi:10.31838/jcr.06.05.72



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam. STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND. JCR. (2019), [cited May 31, 2021]; 6(5): 434-444. doi:10.31838/jcr.06.05.72



Harvard Style

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam (2019) STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND. JCR, 6 (5), 434-444. doi:10.31838/jcr.06.05.72



Turabian Style

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam. 2019. STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND. Journal of Critical Reviews, 6 (5), 434-444. doi:10.31838/jcr.06.05.72



Chicago Style

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam. "STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND." Journal of Critical Reviews 6 (2019), 434-444. doi:10.31838/jcr.06.05.72



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam. "STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND." Journal of Critical Reviews 6.5 (2019), 434-444. Print. doi:10.31838/jcr.06.05.72



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Nitin Mishra, Sanjeev Kumar, Bhaskar R. Nikam (2019) STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE IN DEHRADUN DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND. Journal of Critical Reviews, 6 (5), 434-444. doi:10.31838/jcr.06.05.72